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January 31, 2008
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January 31, 2008
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Tutorial: How to Bet on the Superbowl
January 31, 2008
BODOG SIGNUP PROCEDURE
From the main page: bodoglife.com click ‘OPEN AN ACCOUNT’ or click ‘Join’ from the row of options in the upper right corner of the page that appear in blue letters against a black background. This will take you to the ‘Open your Bodog Account’ page.
‘Open your Bodog Account’
Complete the signup form by typing information into the blank information blocks. The information blocks marked with a star (*) must be filled in, but any blocks that do not have a star can either be completed or left blank. Make absolutely sure that your email address is typed in correctly because later when you make deposits to your account they will send you important messages at the email address you give them.
Important Note; Make sure and double check that all required information has been filled in and that it is in the correct format; Either “Mr.” or “Mrs.” must be selected. Your date of birth should be filled in making sure the last block containing the year has 4 digits (1975 in our example). Next to your “Primary Phone” information don’t forget to pick one of the options from the “day/eve?” drop down menu to indicate what time of day is best to reach you. You must pick “daytime”, “evening”, “mobile” or “anytime”. The password you choose must be at least 5 characters long. If any of this information is missing or even if it’s filled in but does not exactly follow the instructions you will get a rejection screen saying that you must fill in that information before you can continue. But then when you fill in
that missing information and click “Open My Account” again you will often find that your password or your Mother’s maiden name was erased from the screen and you have to retype that information and resubmit the form AGAIN. And there might be a programming glitch or something with Bodog’s fill-in form because sometimes even when it looks like you have re-entered all the information completely and correctly it STILL rejects you and tells you to fill in the form again. Eventually it will accept your application, but the rejections and retyping are a real pain, so just make sure everything is typed correctly the first time!
The bottom portion of the page has a check box that allows you to receive special offers from Bodog. Just put a check mark next to the items you want to receive (or uncheck everything if you don’t want to receive anything from Bodog in the future). In our example we put a check mark next to “Bodog Rewards and Specials” because we like to get emails from Bodog about special bonuses and perks that they give to signed up members and that may only be offered for a short time.
When you have completed the entire signup form properly, click once on the dark blue button that says
“Open My Account” in white letters.
‘Thanks for Registering with Bodog’
After you have clicked the ‘Open My Account’ button at the bottom of the signup form, the ‘Thanks for Registering with Bodog’ page will appear. When the page comes up it will tell you that your account is ready and it will give you an Account Number. The Account Number is 3593023 in our example. Now would be a good time to check your email and make sure that Bodog has sent you a message confirming your account details.
When you are ready to make a deposit to your account, click on the dark blue button that says “ Secure deposit with 10% bonus >>” in white letters (Note – a 10% deposit bonus was available when we signed up. We expect that it will be available for you as well but you must confirm this when you sign up).
‘Currency’
After you have clicked the ‘Secure deposit with 10% bonus >>’ button at the bottom of the ‘Thanks for Registering’ page, the ‘Currency’ page will appear. Select the currency from the drop down menu that is appropriate to your country, and also put a check mark in the box next to the phrase “I understand that once selected my currency can only be changed by customer service.” After you have selected a currency and checked the box, click the light gray button that says “Set My Currency” in black letters.
‘Sign in to your Bodog account’
After you have clicked the ‘Set My Currency’ button on the currency form, the ‘Sign in to your Bodog account’ page will appear. Fill in the account number that you saw on the ‘Thanks for Registering with Bodog’ page, and fill in the same password that you used when you competed the signup form. After you have filled in the information, click on the dark blue button that says “Sign in” in white letters.
‘Welcome’
After you have clicked the ‘Sign in’ button on the sign in form, the ‘Welcome’ page will appear. This page has numerous options, but the first thing you will want to do is make a deposit to your Bodog account so you can begin wagering.
From the list of options in blue letters against a white background on the left side of the page, click on the second option from the top titled ‘Deposit’.
‘Credit Card’
When the ‘Deposits’ page comes up it will show you 4 different ways that you can deposit money into your account to start wagering with. The page will automatically come up with the “Credit Card” option open (you can see the “Credit Card” title box highlighted in dark blue background with white letters), but the menu on the left side of the page will contain 3 other choices of payment methods that you can make. As you click on each method of payment, the same highlighting using dark blue background and white lettering will be displayed for the option that you have clicked on. At the time we signed up, Bodog was offering a 10% bonus on all deposits. So if we deposit $100 for wagering Bodog will actually put $110 in our account.
Please be sure that you want to wager with the money you deposit. You may be charged a fee if you deposit money into your Bodog account and then withdraw it without placing any bets first. This fee would be limited to the actual costs of processing the transactions, but we are not sure exactly what that cost would be.
In other sections of this tutorial you will see details on all 4 methods of depositing funds into your Bodog account. In order to give you an example of what the entire transaction looks like we did make a deposit of $20 into our Bodog account, and the method we selected was a deposit from our credit card. We are not 100% certain, but the “Thank you” page we were shown after we made our deposit looked pretty generic so we would expect that whichever method of payment you choose for your deposit, you would see the same confirmation page.
If you have a Credit Card and you want to use it to deposit funds into your Bodog account then this is the screen you would use. You first must agree with the terms and conditions listed on this page by clicking on the dark blue button at the bottom right of the page that says “I agree” in white letters. This will take you to the second Credit Card Deposit Page.
Credit Card page Part 2
At the second Credit Card Deposit page you must fill in the following information;
Deposit amount - Fill in the amount of money you want to deposit at Bodog. You have to deposit at least $20 to start. In our example we have decided to deposit $20.
Card Type - Select your card type either Visa or Mastercard. In our example we have selected Visa.
Card Number - Fill in your 16 digit credit card number. In our example we used the fake card number 1111222233334444
Expiry Date - Fill in the expiration date of your credit card. In our example we made up an expiration date of August, 2008. The number before the month (08 in our example) just tells you the number of the month you have chosen.
Credit Card Verification Number - Fill in the 3 digit number found on the back of your credit card. In our example we use the fake verification number 888.
When you are sure all the information is correct and you want to make the deposit, click on the dark blue button at the bottom right of the page that says “Make Deposit” in white letters.
Credit Card page Part 3
After you click “Make Deposit” on the second Credit Card Deposit page, you will be shown (if your credit card transaction is accepted) this “Thank you” page which confirms that your deposit was successful and that you are now ready to wager on Bodog. You can see the deposit amount of $20, and the 10% bonus of $2 that we received for joining Bodog and making a deposit.
BODOG WAGERING PROCEDURE
Bodog Main page
When you open Explorer or Firefox or whichever browser you use, and type in “www.bodoglife.com” this is the main page that comes up. Keep in mind that this is the main page that appeared when we visited the site, but big sportsbooks like Bodog are constantly refreshing their material so you may see something different. To sign in, click ‘Sign In’ from the row of options in the upper right corner of the page that appear in blue letters against a black background. This will re-open the main page, but will make your account information available. Note that if you are proceeding directly from making a deposit, you will already be signed in and will not need to go through the sign in page.
Bodog Sign In
We are signing in using our email address and password. Remember to use the same email address you used when you first filled out the “Open your Bodog account” page.
After signing in, the Main page appears again. We clicked on the picture with the green background that says “SPORTS” in big white letters because we will be placing a bet on the sportsbook section of the Bodog site.
Bodog Sportsbook
This is the page we were sent to when we clicked “SPORTS” on the main page - it’s the cover page for the Bodog sportsbook. The Betting Lines for Football are displayed in the upper left corner. You can see that the available options for NFL betting are “NFL Super Bowl”, “Super Bowl Player Props” and “Super Bowl Team Props” since they are shown in blue letters. The “NFL Exhibition” and “CFL” are shown with light gray letters meaning they are not available, and nothing happens if you click on them.
Bodog Sportsbook Super Bowl Team Props
If you click on the words “Super Bowl Team Props” on the sportsbook page this is the screen that appears. This is actually an abbreviated page. The number of team props is huge and we just cut the page down to make it more viewable.
The team props allow you to bet on various things that may or may not happen in the Super Bowl. You can even bet on who will receive the ball first, and that’s nothing more than a coin toss by the referee just before the game! We prefer to bet on the actual Super Bowl game however, so we will go back to the sportsbook page to reach the NFL games betting section.
Bodog Sportsbook NFL Super Bowl Bets
If you click on the words “NFL Super Bowl” under the Football betting lines on the sportsbook page this is the screen that appears - now we are finally at the place that the whole signup procedure has been leading to! These are the betting lines for this week’s NFL Super Bowl game. If you look at the chart you will see that the table shows in blue letters (from left to right) the team, the point spread, the moneyline, the total and the score. You can see that Bodog gives you the option to bet the money line but does not give you the option to bet on the score of the Super Bowl. We don’t usually want to bet on the exact final score of football games so even though we may not have the option to bet on the score it doesn’t bother us too much. The money line is a different matter though. Sometimes we really like to bet the moneyline because all we have to do is decide which team we think is going to win the game - no messing around with winning by a certain number of points. And today we are doubly lucky because the team we want to bet on is the underdog AND the moneyline is also available. You will notice that the page or ‘tab’ we are looking at right now says “Games” in black letters on a white tab but that next to this tab, in white letters on a black tab are “First halves”, “Halftimes” and “Quarter Lines”. As you might guess, clicking on these tabs shows you betting lines that allow you to place bets on what the score will be at halftime, which team will win any particular half of the game and which team will win any particular quarter. For now though we are going to concentrate on the bets that apply to the entire game.
Bodog Sportsbook NFL Bets Detail
Before we place a bet, lets take a look at the features called Point spread, Moneyline and Total (also called over/under or O/U), and explain what the terms mean.
Point Spread - In most football games, one team is the favorite to win while the other team is more likely to lose and is the underdog. The point spread is a number that tells you how many more points the favorite is expected to score than the underdog. The favorite will have a number next to their name with a minus sign in front of it while the underdog will have a number next to their name with a plus sign. In this example we look at the New York Giants and New England Patriots. The Giants have a (+11) point spread meaning that they are expected to lose by 11 points. Now you can bet on the Giants if you want to and if the Giants lose by less than 11 points (or if they actually win) you win your bet. You can see that New England has a (-11) point spread. That means that if you bet on New England and they win by more than 11 points you win your bet. If New England wins by exactly 11 points then the result is a “push” - that means that you do not win any money but you do not lose any money either. Now in the case of the Super Bowl the point spread actually has some additional numbers. The Giants (+11) point spread is followed by a (-105) and the Patriots (-11) point spread is followed by a (-115). Now unless otherwise stated, when you bet using the point spread you would have to risk $110 in order to win $100. But in this case because there is a moneyline attached to the point spread you would have to bet $105 in order to win $100 if you bet on the Giants plus 11 points, and you would have to bet $115 to win $100 if you bet on the Patriots minus 11 points.
Moneyline - The standard moneyline for pro football is (-110); that means that you would need to bet $110 in order to win $100. However in many cases a moneyline which is different from the standard is used. If you look at the Super Bowl you see that the moneyline on the Giants is (+330). What this means is that if you wanted to bet that the Giants will win the game you would only need to bet $100 in order to win $330. Now take a look at the Patriots moneyline which is (-460). If you wanted to bet that the Patriots will win the game you would have to bet $460 for the chance to win only $100. So a “plus” sign in front of the moneyline number means that you would bet $100 to win that number of dollars. But a “minus” sign in front of the moneyline number means that you would have to bet that number of dollars just to win $100.
Total - This refers to the total number of points scored in the game. You would take the number of points scored by one team and add that number to the number of points scored by their opponent. The sum of those two numbers is what is known as the “Total”. Bodog will provide a number that represents their idea of what the Total will be for any given contest. This week, Bodog believes that the total number of points scored in the Super Bowl will be 54.5 points. Note that Bodog lists the “Over” as (-110)o and the “Under” as (-110)u, and you would bet either the “Over” or the “Under”. If you wanted to place a bet on this aspect of the game you would first decide if you thought the Total would be more than 54.5 points or less than 54.5. For example, if you think that the Giants will score 24 points and the Patriots will score 38 points (a “Total” of 62 points) then you would bet the “Over” of (-110)o, meaning that you are betting that the points total will be ‘over’ what Bodog thinks it will be. On the other hand, if you think for example that the Giants will score 13 points and the Patriots will score 28 points (a “Total” of 41 points) then you would bet the “Under” of (-110)u, meaning that you are betting that the points total will be ‘under’ what Bodog thinks it will be. Once again, because the moneyline attached to both the Over and the Under is (-110), you would be betting $110 for the chance to win $100.
Bodog Sportsbook NFL Placing the Bet
You can see that we have put a check mark in the box next to the New York Giants in the “Moneyline” column. As explained before “moneyline” means that we are simply betting that New York will win the game, and we don’t need to worry about how many points are scored by either team. The “+330″ in the moneyline means that we would need to risk $100 to win $330, or in other words if we win we will get our money back plus we will be paid 330% of the amount we bet.
You can also see that when we place the check mark in that box, the button at the top of the chart that says “Single Bet” turns bright blue. That is the button we need to click in order to move to the next step.
Bodog Sportsbook NFL Enter Stake
After you click on the “Single Bet” button, a page is brought up which is used for telling Bodog the exact amount of money you want to bet. There are three steps listed in a long bar across the top of the
form and you can see that the first step, called “Enter Stake” is highlighted and is a brighter blue color than the remaining two steps. In the table titled “Risk Details” you will fill in the dollar amount of your bet in the window next to the word “Risk”. The minimum amount we would have been allowed to place on this wager is $1, and when the screen first appeared there was a “1″ in the “Risk” window and “3.30″ in the “to win” window. In our example, we have entered “20″ in the “Risk” window, meaning that we want to bet $20. When we do that, the number “66.00″ automatically appears in the “to win” window. Remember that when you risk $20 to win $66, you really are winning $66 because the payout for a winning bet will be $86 - $66 winnings plus the $20 you originally paid to place the bet.
When you have decided on the amount of your bet and entered it into the “Risk” window, click the dark blue button in the lower right corner of the form that says “Review My Bet” in white letters.
Bodog Sportsbook NFL Review Bet
Now we are at the “Review Bet” screen. You can see that in addition to the “Enter Stake” section of the
header bar, step 2 called “Review Bet” is now also highlighted a brighter blue color. This screen is just an extra measure of protection to make sure that Bodog has clearly understood what game you are betting on, what type of bet you are placing and how much money you want to risk. The details of the event and the type of bet are shown in the left hand portion of the form called “Confirm Single Bet Details”, and the amount of money you are betting is shown on the right hand side of the form under “Confirm Risk Details”. You should review all the information on the forms. In our example we confirm that the information is correct. As shown under “Confirm Single Bet Details” we want to bet
on the New York Giants, and we want to bet the moneyline which is +330. As we have discussed, this +330 bet means that for every dollar we risk we will win $3.30 if the Giants win the game. And under “Confirm Risk Details” it does show correctly that we have decided to risk $20 for a chance to win $66.
If you want to change any of this information or cancel the bet completely, now is the last chance you have to do that, and you would click the dark blue button at the bottom of the form that says “Modify My Stake” in white letters, or click the dark blue button at the bottom left that says “Cancel” in white letters if you want to cancel the bet entirely. But if you are sure that all the information is correct and you do want to place the bet, then click on the dark blue button at the bottom right that says “Place My Bet”, but… remember that when you click this button you have spent money on a bet and the money will be deducted from your account at that instant.
Bodog Sportsbook NFL Bet Placed
Okay, almost finished. Now that you have clicked the “Place My Bet” button a screen comes up in which the third step in the header bar across the top of the form is highlighted. Step number 3 is called
“Bet Placed” and in contrast to the other two steps, this one is highlighted a bright green. On the form below it says that you have successfully placed your bet, and it gives you a reference number that is unique to the single bet that you have just placed. Down below it also lists the bet details again along with the amount of money that you risked.
You can click the blue text that says “Print wager information” if you want to print a paper copy of the transaction on a printer that is connected to your computer. Even if you don’t print it or save it however your information will still be saved on Bodog. If you sign in from the main page (as we described in another section) and click ‘Manage Account’ in the upper left corner of the main page, a screen will come up with all your account information.
Bodog Sportsbook NFL Manage Account
Here is the screen with all your account information that tells you how much money you have left in your account. Since we started out with $22 (a $20 deposit plus a $2 bonus) and we placed a $20 bet, we now have $2 left in our account.
Notice that in the menu on the left side of the form there are a list of options in blue letters, and one of them is “Open Bets”. If you click on this it will show you all the bets you have made that are on games which have not been played yet.
Bodog Sportsbook NFL Open Bets
Here is the “Open Bets” screen. As you can see, all the details of our bet are kept on file here by Bodog.
When you are finished doing everything you want to do at Bodog we recommend that you always sign out and not just close Explorer or Firefox, or whichever browser you are using. You would
click the words “Sign Out” at the upper right of the screen in light blue letters on a dark gray background.
Bodog Sportsbook NFL Sign Out
After you have clicked “Sign Out” you should see a screen something like this confirming that you have logged off of the Bodog site.
If you share a computer with other people and you want to make sure and keep the details of your betting as private as possible you may want to click on the link that
says “clear your browser cache” and follow the directions that are given. This will erase any record of the bets and money transfers you have made at Bodog.
End of Tutorial
Well, that’s the end of our tutorial! Check back with us in the near future since we plan to expand the tutorial to give detailed step by step instructions on different kinds of bets and how to place multiple bets on Bodog. Take Care!
Prediction: Who will Win the Superbowl?
January 30, 2008
Want to know who will win the Superbowl? Read on! In an improbable matchup, the Giants who had to claw their way into the postseason with a wild card berth will meet the unbeaten Patriots in the Super Bowl next weekend.
With a perfect 16-0 regular season record and a pair of playoff victories to boot the New England Patriots are the golden boys of the NFL this year with the only 18-0 record in NFL history. But they know full well that without bringing home the Vince Lombardi trophy their amazing season will be nothing more than a curiosity. Even though they have won more games than the 1972 Dolphins who went 17-0 including a victory in the league championship game against the Redskins, an 18-1 season for New England would still amount to little more than a footnote to Miami’s historic undefeated performance.
The Giants meanwhile are as close as you could get to being the Cinderella team in this years Super Bowl. Only a Washington victory at Seattle and Green Bay and then a win over their divisional rivals the Giants would have been a more impressive comeback than the Giants have posted. Having missed the last chance of the season to ruin the Patriots winning streak and keep them from an unbeaten regular season in Week 17, the Giants now have another crack at the Patriots and are the last obstacle to a perfect New England season from start to finish. New York comes in to this matchup with a barrel full of confidence. They have 10 consecutive road victories including three in the playoffs. Dismissing criticisms about the lack of competent opponents in the Giants schedule, two of those three postseason wins were against the number one and number two seeds in the NFC.
It’s difficult to draw conclusions based on rankings in the post season, but there certainly seem to be some developments worth mentioning. The first and most important is that the Giants defense has been standing tall in the playoffs. Ranked 7th overall during the regular season they have maintained the same level of play in their quest for the conference title, and even performed a bit better. They shaved about 15 yards per game off the amount of real estate they were allowing, but even more importantly they have allowed their last three opponents only 17 points a game on average. That’s nearly 5 points per game less than they were allowing in the regular season, and a figure that would have been good enough for top honors in the NFL through sixteen games.
For their part, New England has given up some but not too much of the mystique that kept most of the league in awe of them for the first two thirds of the season. At that time, when playing the Patriots you had to assume that Brady was going to take the ball down the field and continue to score on every single drive. You had to take every opportunity to get your shots in against them because to do anything less was to roll out a red carpet to the end zone. With the first near defeat in Baltimore, the Patriots seemingly invulnerable mantle began to crack. Over the last five games of the season it became increasingly clear that pressure on Brady could change the game dramatically.
For now, the sense is that the Patriots are not a superhuman team, just a very versatile one with a lot of depth who, to coin an overused cliché, always find a way to win. It’s an accomplishment that’s owed to the coaching staff as well as the players. Brady threw three interceptions in the conference championship against the Chargers but New England’s offensive coordinators changed their tune after halftime by concentrating on dominating the line of scrimmage and running the ball. Like Cowboys Marion Barber, Pats running back Laurence Maroney has had the bad luck (if you want to call it that) of being on a team that throws first and runs only when the passing game gets interrupted. Had Maroney played for a team like Kansas City he would probably have been in hot pursuit of a rushing title. Nevertheless, Maroney has gotten his chance in the playoffs, rushing for 244 yards in two games on 47 carries. That’s more chances to run the rock than he has had any two games he has played all of the regular season.
For the Giants to have any shot at a world championship it all starts in the trenches. The Giants must rush the passer better and pressure Brady, but more importantly get some sacks on him as well. New York’s defense, who led the NFL in sacks this year by a wide margin managed to drop Brady for a loss only once in the season finale. Giants DE Michael Strahan is the only one on the New York defense who has played in a Super Bowl before, and he’s the one who will need to lead the front seven in the attack against the Patriots pocket. He’ll have a lot of help from fellow defensive ends Osi Umenyiora who led the Giants with 13 sacks, and Justin Tuck who recorded 10 sacks of his own.
All told the Giants powerful defensive line is probably better equipped than any other team in the NFL to stop the Patriots. They have the ability to pressure Brady in the pocket and they can shut down Maroney on the ground. The Chargers couldn’t stop Maroney and held New England to 21 points. The Giants ought to be able to control New England on the ground, but that advantage will probably be lessened by their lack of speed in the secondary. They can certainly put two defenders on Patriots wide receiver Randy Moss but need a safety with a lot of quickness which the Giants don’t have. If New York can hit Moss at the line they can control him, but the Pats are starting to move Moss around to avoid having him blocked at the beginning of his routes.
As always, the real unknown in the game is which Eli Manning will show up – the confident field general who didn’t turn the ball over once in the playoffs, or the wet behind the ears kid who is still learning what to do with the ball when all his receivers are covered. My guess is that Manning will play a relatively mistake free game. Whether he can score touchdowns from the red zone remains to be seen but he’s done it before against the Patriots and there’s no reason to believe he can’t do it again.
The spread was about 12 points last I looked in favor of the Patriots. If I had to bet the money line there’s no way I would take New York in this game, at least not with any serious cash. But with the defensive tools the Giants have and with the lackluster performance Brady is coming off against San Diego I don’t see New England covering the point spread on this one. Recommendation – bet the Giants +12.
Don’t Play Every Hand
January 30, 2008
One of the things that’s often noticeable about a Texas Hold’em table where people are playing for free is that many of the players you see there will be playing every single hand. Free poker is available in a variety of places, and usually even the online poker rooms that host real-money holdem games have tables where you can refill your chips at no cost and practice playing poker before you actually risk your hard earned money in a game. And why shouldn’t they play every hand, you may ask? There’s nothing to lose moneywise, and it’s good experience to see how often you wind up with the best hand depending on what your hole cards were. Right? Well, not exactly.
For reasons which you can probably read about in a number of places the 7-2 offsuit is statistically the worst hand in holdem poker for games with 5 to 10 players, winning somewhere in the neighborhood of 10% of the time. Just because you bet heavily before the flop on a hand where your hole cards are 7-2 offsuit and you then get a 7-7-2 on the flop to give you a full house doesn’t mean that it was the right thing to do. The thing to remember if you want to be a consistently good poker player over a long period of time (and probably even if you just want to have better luck in the short term) is that the outcome of any particular hand shouldn’t determine the way you play holdem over the long haul.
Unless you are clairvoyant and have the ability to know everyone else’s hole cards plus the flop, turn and river cards, the way to be most successful at Texas Holdem is to know what the likelihood is that your hand will eventually turn out to be the winner, and to bet, check or fold based on that knowledge. Now, does that mean that nobody should ever bet with 7-2 offsuit? Of course not. Even the lowly 7-2 offsuit will beat a pair of Aces about 12% of the time when there are 5 players at the table. But if you are just beginning to play Hold’em poker you probably won’t be able to readily identify the situations where it would be to your advantage to play such a hand. Until you have gained more experience your best course of action is to play the odds, and that means calling a bet on hands that have a high percentage of winning, and raising a bet only on hands that have an extremely high percentage of winning. Click here to see a list of these hands.
What you will quickly notice if you follow this advice is that you will almost certainly be folding the majority of the hands you are dealt, because on average the number of times you are dealt a high percentage hand is far less than the number of times you will be dealt a low percentage hand. Next time you are sitting at the poker table, either real or online, watch and make note of the people who fold most of their hands before the flop when they are not sitting in the big blind or the small blind. The chances are great that when these people bet aggressively or go all-in, they are doing so with a very good hand.
So the lesson is, that in order to have the best chances of success in holdem poker you will generally need to be very patient and generally play with the very best cards, which means that you will usually be folding before the flop. Even at a free poker table this strategy will serve you better because it will allow you to see the outcome of hands that you will eventually be playing at a real money table. Seeing how many times a low percentage hand turns out to be a winner at a free table does you no good, because if you are smart those are not the hands that you will be playing when you sit down at a real money table.
Notice also that we say you should generally play only with the best cards - it should be obvious to you that this is just a rule of thumb. If you were only to bet when you had the very best cards, then other players at the table would catch on to this rather quickly and would pull out before you had a chance to get their chips. For this reason it’s a good idea to bluff at least occasionally when playing texas holdem so they can’t figure out for sure whether you really have a better hand than they do. Use good judgment in these bluffing situations however, and read further here about the strategy of bluffing.
Article Summary;
- In the long run, you will be more successful playing only high value hands.
- Lower value hands may win occasionally but they are not the way to bet.
- If you are playing a proper conservative game you will fold most of the time.
- Bluff sometimes so your opponents can’t assume you only bet on the best hands.
Knowing the Pot Odds
January 30, 2008
Pot odds is a poker term that describes the relative value of a particular pot compared to the size of the bet that you are planning to make. It helps you decide how much money you should bet to win a pot of a particular size given the strength of your cards.
Texas Holdem poker, especially no limit Hold’em is a game which cannot be won simply by using a calculator to determine your odds. Your ability to look at your opponents and intuitively read their body language will factor heavily in your success, and those who don’t learn how to observe other players behavior and respond accordingly will always be at a severe disadvantage. Since the reading of body language is not an extremely exact science, it stands to reason that whenever you do have the opportunity to use mathematical probability in making your decisions the best strategy is to do so. Knowing the pot odds at all times represents one of those opportunities.
From a purely numerical standpoint, the pot odds are a ratio which is calculated by comparing the size of the existing pot to the size of the bet that you intend to make. For example if the pot contains $50 and you are planning to bet $10 on your hand that translates into pot odds of 50 to 10, or 5 to 1, and normally this would be expressed as 5:1. Usually however, most people prefer to express the pot odds as a percentage. The way to do this is to first assume that the bet has been placed in the pot thus resulting in a larger pot. In our example the $50 pot would be increased by the $10 bet, and would then be $60. The next step is to take the amount of the bet and divide it by the amount of the enlarged pot. To continue the example then, the pot odds as a percentage would be $10 divided by $60, or about 17%.
The reason that poker players express pot odds as a percentage is that after you bet, the odds of getting a particular card or cards that will improve your hand are usually also expressed as a percentage. It makes it easier to compare the pot odds to the odds of getting the card you need if both are expressed as a percentage. And the comparison of the pot odds to your chances of getting the cards you want on the flop, turn or river is what will tell you how much you should bet, or whether you should even bet at all. We will continue with our previous example to see how you would use the pot odds to help you figure out how to proceed.
Before the pot odds can help us however, we first need to make sure we understand the hand odds, or the odds of making a particular hand. That’s because pot odds are most useful when you are drawing for a hand, that is to say when you hope to get a card that will give you a better hand than you already have. Determining hand odds is actually pretty easy, since the odds of getting a particular card or cards are well established and are listed in a variety of places such as this hand odds table. Let’s take a simple example where both of your hole cards are diamonds, and two diamonds have been laid down on the flop. If one more diamond is laid down on either the turn or the river you will have yourself a flush. You can see from the table that the odds of drawing a flush on either the turn or the river are 19%.
Very simply, the way to evaluate this bet is to note that the hand odds of 19% are larger than the pot odds of 17%. When the hand odds are larger than the pot odds, we say that the expected value of the hand is positive. If however you had a pocket pair and were trying to get three of a kind on the turn or the river your chances of doing that according to the hand odds table would only be 4%, and since 4% is less than 17% the expected value of the hand would be negative. Only when the expected value is positive is the bet you are contemplating appropriate. So a $10 bet to a $50 pot would be appropriate if you needed one card to make a flush, but would not be appropriate if you needed one card to give you three of a kind. Click here to see a simple tool for determining the odds of winning a hand with selected hole cards and community cards for several players.
Article Summary;
- Pot odds help you decide how much to bet based on the pot size.
- You should use pot odds because they give an objective analysis of the hand.
- Pot odds are a ratio between your proposed bet and the size of the pot.
- Hand odds are the probability of drawing a better hand on the flop, turn or river.
- If the hand odds are larger than the pot odds, the bet you propose is appropriate.
Playing Small Pocket Pairs
January 30, 2008
The last time I sat down to play no limit holdem and played a hand with pocket fives I got a very interesting piece of advice from the guy sitting to my left. He said “when you get dealt pocket fives, run the other way as fast as you can”. I can’t remember exactly how that hand turned out for me (for him to make such a statement suggests that I lost) but it’s not unthinkable for a small pocket pair to wind up beating a better pocket pair or maybe even a couple of overcards. The percentage of times it will happen however is fairly low, and what’s worse is that you can easily find yourself throwing good money after bad in pursuit of that low percentage even after you realize that your low pair isn’t really a very good hand. What you need to do before this happens is to decide based on several factors how much (if any) you are prepared to risk to chase a favorable outcome when you have a low pocket pair.
The first thing that you must realize when you are considering any kind of bet on a small pair is that unless you can get all of your opponents to fold, virtually your only chance of success is to draw a set (three of a kind) or better. Moreover, if you don’t draw that set on the flop you are probably going to need to throw even more more chips into the pot to see the turn and river cards. And if you are with any substantial number of players at the table the likelihood is that at least one of them is going to be betting on a decent hand and thus the amount of chips you will be asked to throw in at that time will often be too much to risk compared to the odds of eventually getting your set.
Let’s start by looking simply at those odds. To get an idea of how often you are likely to face this situation to begin with, your chances of getting dealt any particular pocket pair (such as pocket fives) are about 0.45%. But since there are four possible low pocket pairs (22, 33, 44, 55) your odds of just getting dealt a low pocket pair are 0.45 x 4 which is 1.8% - so 1.8% of the time, or about every 56 hands you ought to be getting dealt a low pair. Next, assuming you have been dealt a pocket pair, we take a look at the odds of getting a set on the flop – and your odds of doing this are about 12%.
Do you think that having a 12% chance of picking up that three of a kind on the flop is a good thing? Well if you do, you probably won’t any more when you find out that the odds of any one of the other players at the table making a pair on the flop with just one of their hole cards is about 33%. And since the better players at holdem poker will usually be betting with higher hole cards like J, Q, K, A, it’s pretty likely that the card they pair is going to be higher than the cards that make up your low pair.
Now assume for a minute that you have paid to see the flop, and assume also that you did not get your set. What do you do now? The obvious answer is that it depends on whether the rest of the table is betting post flop, and how much they are tossing into the pot. But the most important fact is that your odds of getting that set are now down to 4% on the turn, and another 4% on the river.
In analyzing odds, you can certainly make a case that the 4% chance on the turn added to the 4% chance on the river brings your chances up to a total of 8% if you play through to the last card. But for some pretty technical reasons this kind of additive calculation on the odds should only be performed if you know for certain that you are planning to go all-in.
Finally, you need to make any decision based on the other usual factors that are important whenever you play texas holdem - your position in the betting order, the number of players at the table, the pot odds and the size of your stack. If you want to bet pre-flop on a low pocket pair then you are advised to be calling in late position so that nobody will be able to bet after you, and even then the best bet is one where you only need to match the big blind. If you don’t get your set on the flop and you still want to bet the low pair then you had better be very stingy with your chips and throw in only as much as the pot odds warrant. With only a 4% chance of getting the card you need however, you won’t be able to bet a whole lot. Maybe nothing at all.
Article Summary
- Low pocket pairs are a low value hand and must be played carefully if at all.
- The way to win with low pocket pairs is to draw a set on the flop.
- The odds of turning a pocket pair into a set on the flop are about 12%.
- The chances of turning a pair into a set after the flop are only about 4%.
- Pre-flop bets on low pocket pairs should be calls from late position and should probably not exceed the big blind.
Playing Suited Connectors
January 30, 2008
As you read through the available articles on holdem poker strategy you will often come across references to suited connectors. Even if you hadn’t heard the term before you probably figured out that they were referring to two hole cards that are of the same suit and that are also close enough to each other that they could be part of a five card straight in the sequence of cards for that suit. Examples would be 5c6c (the 5 and 6 of clubs), 7sJs (7 and J of spades), or AhQh (Ace and Queen of hearts).
The advantage of having suited connectors should be quite readily apparent. What they offer is the opportunity to acquire two different kinds of winning hands. First, the fact that both of your hole cards are of the same suit means that you are in the best position possible to have a flush, since you only need three of the five community cards to match the suit of your hole cards. Secondly you already have a block of two cards around which you can build a straight from the community cards. And although it’s not something that’s strong enough to affect your pre-flop betting strategy, the added bonus is that you have the core of a potential straight flush as well.
Be aware that some people define suited connectors as only suited cards that are consecutive, but I don’t define suited connectors that way because it makes no sense to me. It’s true that the odds of flopping a straight or a straight draw when you have hole cards of 8s9s (for example) are not identical to the odds you would have when trying to flop the same straight or straight draw with 8sJs as your hole cards, but they are connectors nevertheless and you should know the odds of various outcomes. Also, even though the odds for a straight are worse with 8sJs, the Jack would probably give you a certain advantage over 8s9s by giving you the opportunity to pair a higher card than if you had 8s9s. A pair of nines on the flop may be marginally satisfactory in some cases, but all things being equal, Jacks are certainly better.
I have read in various publications that Doyle Brunson’s advice is to always raise with suited connectors. Having never heard that quote directly from Doyle I can’t confirm whether or not he actually said such a thing. What I can tell you however, is that if Doyle ever did say something like that it was probably taken way out of context and almost certainly referred to consecutive suited connectors. The best advice I can give you about playing suited connectors pre-flop is that unless your connectors are potential overcards like AK, AQ or KQ you will be betting on a relatively weak hand, and most people who play suited connectors over-value them.
You probably should be calling on these connectors the same way that you would as if you were playing small pocket pairs. That is, you should call only from late position, and your bet should only be as much as it needs to be to allow you to see the flop, hopefully just the value of the big blind. Percentage wise with consecutive suited connectors, you can expect to flop a flush draw or better about 12% of the time, and an 8-out straight draw or better about 10% of the time. Note that the odds of an 8-out straight draw are only about 8% with one gapped connectors (like 53 or QT), about 5% with two gapped connectors (like 52 or KT) and about 2% with three gapped connectors (like 62 or AT). If you don’t get either draw it’s time to fold, and it might be wise to fold anyway depending on how good the potential flush or straight is.
In discussing the strategy of playing suited connectors, it’s important to be aware that lower suited connectors need to be played differently than higher ones, and consecutive suited connectors present different outcomes than non consecutive suited connectors. For example, if you had 8s9s and the flop came out T-J-Q you would be faced with the possibility that another player was betting with AK in the hole and they would therefore have a higher straight than you. The same applies to flushes – when your suited connectors are low you run the risk of losing to a higher flush.
Once the flop comes, the mystery of suited connectors is gone. You will either have rags or you will be playing a flush draw or a straight draw, and the flop might have given you a chance to complete the straight flush. The way you play to these options is no different than the way you would approach a flush draw or a straight draw regardless of your hole cards. You count how many outs you have, note the percentage of times that you can expect to draw those outs on the turn or the river, and bet accordingly.
Article Summary;
- Suited connectors are cards of the same suit that can be used in a five card straight.
- Suited connectors have the potential to become either a straight or a flush.
- Suited connectors are a relatively weak hand and are often over valued.
- Bet on suited connectors by calling the value of the big blind from late position.
- Be cautious of losing to a higher flush or straight than your own.
- Post flop, play suited connectors as you would any other straight or flush draw.
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January 30, 2008
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