Prediction: Who will Win the Superbowl?

Want to know who will win the Superbowl? Read on! In an improbable matchup, the Giants who had to claw their way into the postseason with a wild card berth will meet the unbeaten Patriots in the Super Bowl next weekend.

With a perfect 16-0 regular season record and a pair of playoff victories to boot the New England Patriots are the golden boys of the NFL this year with the only 18-0 record in NFL history. But they know full well that without bringing home the Vince Lombardi trophy their amazing season will be nothing more than a curiosity. Even though they have won more games than the 1972 Dolphins who went 17-0 including a victory in the league championship game against the Redskins, an 18-1 season for New England would still amount to little more than a footnote to Miami’s historic undefeated performance.

The Giants meanwhile are as close as you could get to being the Cinderella team in this years Super Bowl. Only a Washington victory at Seattle and Green Bay and then a win over their divisional rivals the Giants would have been a more impressive comeback than the Giants have posted. Having missed the last chance of the season to ruin the Patriots winning streak and keep them from an unbeaten regular season in Week 17, the Giants now have another crack at the Patriots and are the last obstacle to a perfect New England season from start to finish. New York comes in to this matchup with a barrel full of confidence. They have 10 consecutive road victories including three in the playoffs. Dismissing criticisms about the lack of competent opponents in the Giants schedule, two of those three postseason wins were against the number one and number two seeds in the NFC.

It’s difficult to draw conclusions based on rankings in the post season, but there certainly seem to be some developments worth mentioning. The first and most important is that the Giants defense has been standing tall in the playoffs. Ranked 7th overall during the regular season they have maintained the same level of play in their quest for the conference title, and even performed a bit better. They shaved about 15 yards per game off the amount of real estate they were allowing, but even more importantly they have allowed their last three opponents only 17 points a game on average. That’s nearly 5 points per game less than they were allowing in the regular season, and a figure that would have been good enough for top honors in the NFL through sixteen games.

For their part, New England has given up some but not too much of the mystique that kept most of the league in awe of them for the first two thirds of the season. At that time, when playing the Patriots you had to assume that Brady was going to take the ball down the field and continue to score on every single drive. You had to take every opportunity to get your shots in against them because to do anything less was to roll out a red carpet to the end zone. With the first near defeat in Baltimore, the Patriots seemingly invulnerable mantle began to crack. Over the last five games of the season it became increasingly clear that pressure on Brady could change the game dramatically.

For now, the sense is that the Patriots are not a superhuman team, just a very versatile one with a lot of depth who, to coin an overused cliché, always find a way to win. It’s an accomplishment that’s owed to the coaching staff as well as the players. Brady threw three interceptions in the conference championship against the Chargers but New England’s offensive coordinators changed their tune after halftime by concentrating on dominating the line of scrimmage and running the ball. Like Cowboys Marion Barber, Pats running back Laurence Maroney has had the bad luck (if you want to call it that) of being on a team that throws first and runs only when the passing game gets interrupted. Had Maroney played for a team like Kansas City he would probably have been in hot pursuit of a rushing title. Nevertheless, Maroney has gotten his chance in the playoffs, rushing for 244 yards in two games on 47 carries. That’s more chances to run the rock than he has had any two games he has played all of the regular season.

For the Giants to have any shot at a world championship it all starts in the trenches. The Giants must rush the passer better and pressure Brady, but more importantly get some sacks on him as well. New York’s defense, who led the NFL in sacks this year by a wide margin managed to drop Brady for a loss only once in the season finale. Giants DE Michael Strahan is the only one on the New York defense who has played in a Super Bowl before, and he’s the one who will need to lead the front seven in the attack against the Patriots pocket. He’ll have a lot of help from fellow defensive ends Osi Umenyiora who led the Giants with 13 sacks, and Justin Tuck who recorded 10 sacks of his own.

All told the Giants powerful defensive line is probably better equipped than any other team in the NFL to stop the Patriots. They have the ability to pressure Brady in the pocket and they can shut down Maroney on the ground. The Chargers couldn’t stop Maroney and held New England to 21 points. The Giants ought to be able to control New England on the ground, but that advantage will probably be lessened by their lack of speed in the secondary. They can certainly put two defenders on Patriots wide receiver Randy Moss but need a safety with a lot of quickness which the Giants don’t have. If New York can hit Moss at the line they can control him, but the Pats are starting to move Moss around to avoid having him blocked at the beginning of his routes.

As always, the real unknown in the game is which Eli Manning will show up – the confident field general who didn’t turn the ball over once in the playoffs, or the wet behind the ears kid who is still learning what to do with the ball when all his receivers are covered. My guess is that Manning will play a relatively mistake free game. Whether he can score touchdowns from the red zone remains to be seen but he’s done it before against the Patriots and there’s no reason to believe he can’t do it again.

The spread was about 12 points last I looked in favor of the Patriots. If I had to bet the money line there’s no way I would take New York in this game, at least not with any serious cash. But with the defensive tools the Giants have and with the lackluster performance Brady is coming off against San Diego I don’t see New England covering the point spread on this one. Recommendation – bet the Giants +12.