Playing Small Pocket Pairs
January 30, 2008
The last time I sat down to play no limit holdem and played a hand with pocket fives I got a very interesting piece of advice from the guy sitting to my left. He said “when you get dealt pocket fives, run the other way as fast as you can”. I can’t remember exactly how that hand turned out for me (for him to make such a statement suggests that I lost) but it’s not unthinkable for a small pocket pair to wind up beating a better pocket pair or maybe even a couple of overcards. The percentage of times it will happen however is fairly low, and what’s worse is that you can easily find yourself throwing good money after bad in pursuit of that low percentage even after you realize that your low pair isn’t really a very good hand. What you need to do before this happens is to decide based on several factors how much (if any) you are prepared to risk to chase a favorable outcome when you have a low pocket pair.
The first thing that you must realize when you are considering any kind of bet on a small pair is that unless you can get all of your opponents to fold, virtually your only chance of success is to draw a set (three of a kind) or better. Moreover, if you don’t draw that set on the flop you are probably going to need to throw even more more chips into the pot to see the turn and river cards. And if you are with any substantial number of players at the table the likelihood is that at least one of them is going to be betting on a decent hand and thus the amount of chips you will be asked to throw in at that time will often be too much to risk compared to the odds of eventually getting your set.
Let’s start by looking simply at those odds. To get an idea of how often you are likely to face this situation to begin with, your chances of getting dealt any particular pocket pair (such as pocket fives) are about 0.45%. But since there are four possible low pocket pairs (22, 33, 44, 55) your odds of just getting dealt a low pocket pair are 0.45 x 4 which is 1.8% - so 1.8% of the time, or about every 56 hands you ought to be getting dealt a low pair. Next, assuming you have been dealt a pocket pair, we take a look at the odds of getting a set on the flop – and your odds of doing this are about 12%.
Do you think that having a 12% chance of picking up that three of a kind on the flop is a good thing? Well if you do, you probably won’t any more when you find out that the odds of any one of the other players at the table making a pair on the flop with just one of their hole cards is about 33%. And since the better players at holdem poker will usually be betting with higher hole cards like J, Q, K, A, it’s pretty likely that the card they pair is going to be higher than the cards that make up your low pair.
Now assume for a minute that you have paid to see the flop, and assume also that you did not get your set. What do you do now? The obvious answer is that it depends on whether the rest of the table is betting post flop, and how much they are tossing into the pot. But the most important fact is that your odds of getting that set are now down to 4% on the turn, and another 4% on the river.
In analyzing odds, you can certainly make a case that the 4% chance on the turn added to the 4% chance on the river brings your chances up to a total of 8% if you play through to the last card. But for some pretty technical reasons this kind of additive calculation on the odds should only be performed if you know for certain that you are planning to go all-in.
Finally, you need to make any decision based on the other usual factors that are important whenever you play texas holdem - your position in the betting order, the number of players at the table, the pot odds and the size of your stack. If you want to bet pre-flop on a low pocket pair then you are advised to be calling in late position so that nobody will be able to bet after you, and even then the best bet is one where you only need to match the big blind. If you don’t get your set on the flop and you still want to bet the low pair then you had better be very stingy with your chips and throw in only as much as the pot odds warrant. With only a 4% chance of getting the card you need however, you won’t be able to bet a whole lot. Maybe nothing at all.
Article Summary
- Low pocket pairs are a low value hand and must be played carefully if at all.
- The way to win with low pocket pairs is to draw a set on the flop.
- The odds of turning a pocket pair into a set on the flop are about 12%.
- The chances of turning a pair into a set after the flop are only about 4%.
- Pre-flop bets on low pocket pairs should be calls from late position and should probably not exceed the big blind.
Playing Suited Connectors
January 30, 2008
As you read through the available articles on holdem poker strategy you will often come across references to suited connectors. Even if you hadn’t heard the term before you probably figured out that they were referring to two hole cards that are of the same suit and that are also close enough to each other that they could be part of a five card straight in the sequence of cards for that suit. Examples would be 5c6c (the 5 and 6 of clubs), 7sJs (7 and J of spades), or AhQh (Ace and Queen of hearts).
The advantage of having suited connectors should be quite readily apparent. What they offer is the opportunity to acquire two different kinds of winning hands. First, the fact that both of your hole cards are of the same suit means that you are in the best position possible to have a flush, since you only need three of the five community cards to match the suit of your hole cards. Secondly you already have a block of two cards around which you can build a straight from the community cards. And although it’s not something that’s strong enough to affect your pre-flop betting strategy, the added bonus is that you have the core of a potential straight flush as well.
Be aware that some people define suited connectors as only suited cards that are consecutive, but I don’t define suited connectors that way because it makes no sense to me. It’s true that the odds of flopping a straight or a straight draw when you have hole cards of 8s9s (for example) are not identical to the odds you would have when trying to flop the same straight or straight draw with 8sJs as your hole cards, but they are connectors nevertheless and you should know the odds of various outcomes. Also, even though the odds for a straight are worse with 8sJs, the Jack would probably give you a certain advantage over 8s9s by giving you the opportunity to pair a higher card than if you had 8s9s. A pair of nines on the flop may be marginally satisfactory in some cases, but all things being equal, Jacks are certainly better.
I have read in various publications that Doyle Brunson’s advice is to always raise with suited connectors. Having never heard that quote directly from Doyle I can’t confirm whether or not he actually said such a thing. What I can tell you however, is that if Doyle ever did say something like that it was probably taken way out of context and almost certainly referred to consecutive suited connectors. The best advice I can give you about playing suited connectors pre-flop is that unless your connectors are potential overcards like AK, AQ or KQ you will be betting on a relatively weak hand, and most people who play suited connectors over-value them.
You probably should be calling on these connectors the same way that you would as if you were playing small pocket pairs. That is, you should call only from late position, and your bet should only be as much as it needs to be to allow you to see the flop, hopefully just the value of the big blind. Percentage wise with consecutive suited connectors, you can expect to flop a flush draw or better about 12% of the time, and an 8-out straight draw or better about 10% of the time. Note that the odds of an 8-out straight draw are only about 8% with one gapped connectors (like 53 or QT), about 5% with two gapped connectors (like 52 or KT) and about 2% with three gapped connectors (like 62 or AT). If you don’t get either draw it’s time to fold, and it might be wise to fold anyway depending on how good the potential flush or straight is.
In discussing the strategy of playing suited connectors, it’s important to be aware that lower suited connectors need to be played differently than higher ones, and consecutive suited connectors present different outcomes than non consecutive suited connectors. For example, if you had 8s9s and the flop came out T-J-Q you would be faced with the possibility that another player was betting with AK in the hole and they would therefore have a higher straight than you. The same applies to flushes – when your suited connectors are low you run the risk of losing to a higher flush.
Once the flop comes, the mystery of suited connectors is gone. You will either have rags or you will be playing a flush draw or a straight draw, and the flop might have given you a chance to complete the straight flush. The way you play to these options is no different than the way you would approach a flush draw or a straight draw regardless of your hole cards. You count how many outs you have, note the percentage of times that you can expect to draw those outs on the turn or the river, and bet accordingly.
Article Summary;
- Suited connectors are cards of the same suit that can be used in a five card straight.
- Suited connectors have the potential to become either a straight or a flush.
- Suited connectors are a relatively weak hand and are often over valued.
- Bet on suited connectors by calling the value of the big blind from late position.
- Be cautious of losing to a higher flush or straight than your own.
- Post flop, play suited connectors as you would any other straight or flush draw.
