Today’s bet sizing topic is over betting, and you’re in for a treat, as I selected a hand from one of the world’s best to demonstrate, Mr. Phil Ivey vs my great friend, Italian Pro poker player Dario Sammartino on Aussie Millions 2016 – $100,000 Challenge/ High Roller Event . This video wraps up a 3 part series on bet sizing (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wgyw3mbWLXQ). If you haven’t already, definitely check out Part 1 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1Lcry3TJ_g) and Part 2 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQrxoYjbRuM) where I share strategies for effectively choosing your bet sizes in every situation!
Check my blog for detailed analysis of the hand.
Sure he gets a bit lucky to backdoor a full house, but give him credit for getting max value. Whereas most would win a normal bet on the river (maybe ½ the pot), Phil Ivey managed to 2x overbet the river… and get paid!
But the real decision in the hand is whether or not Dario Samartino should call the river. I’ll analyze this from two perspectives, both which should lead us to the same conclusion.
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This post has not been revised since publication.